Thursday, June 25, 2009

A bullish sign? Maybe not.

A bullish reader sent us an e-mail indicating that today we had an unusual alignment of events: the S&P500 move up by 2%, the VIX move down by almost 3 points, and the 10-year treasury yield drop by more than 15 bp. This must be a sign of renewed confidence and a signal that we’ve turned the corner.

So let’s go back in history to see when was the last time this happened. Actually it wasn’t that long ago. It was on 12/16/08 when S&P500 was up 5%, VIX down 4.4. points, and the 10-year note yield down almost 26 bp. In the next week however, the S&P500 gave it all back and some. And we all know what happened in January.

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