"The pathology of the current episode could produce a mediocre or muted recovery because of concerns that the banks are not in a strong position to lend and/or the customers are not eager to re-leverage."
The CS forecast is fairly optimistic relative to others: 2.4% annual GDP growth for the US in 2010. What’s striking however is their view of the length of time it will take to get back to the previous cycle peak as compared to earlier recessions:
Friedman’s pluck according to CS is much slower on the way up. So far the evidence supports their view. Here are the latest chain store sales numbers (year over year) excluding Wal Mart: down 4.6% - the consumer continues to be in a deleveraging mode.