Thursday, November 17, 2011

Dealer CDS Widening

Another worrisome sign pointing to stresses in the interbank market is the widening of US dealer CDS spreads. These spreads reached their high in early October when concerns were raised about Morgan Stanley's exposure to sovereign European debt. MS has a large "gross" exposure to Europe, but the net numbers seem to be mild. Once the market digested that, the spreads retreated, only to start their climb again in November. In fact Goldman CDS spread is now at 377 with the October high at around 420bp.

US Dealer 5-Year CDS Spreads(Bloomberg)

These stresses continue to be almost entirely driven by Europe. Any calm on that front will cause these spreads to tighten materially.
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