Looks like Republicans may be in trouble for 2012 presidential bid. Intrade, the Irish betting site has Obama above 51% odds of victory with an upward trend. Seems the Republican presidential debates and the “personalities” lineup didn’t help much. There is also some evidence the Democrats' performance (probability) is correlated to the equity markets. But more on that later.
When people bet money on a candidate, they are not saying this is who they would vote for, but who is more likely to win. That makes this process a better predictor than traditional polling.