A couple of charts on existing home sales (EHS) data in the US that are worth a look. The first one shows the now infamous 14% downward revision, demonstrating just how badly EHS had dipped in the housing recession.
National Association of Realtors (NAR): ...today were periodic benchmark revisions with downward adjustments to sales and inventory data since 2007, led by a decline in for-sale-by-owners.Right. It seems that NAR had to adjust their estimate of homes sold by owners, for which they don't have monthly data (after all, these guys are realtors).
Although rebenchmarking resulted in lower adjustments to several years of home sales data, the month-to-month characterization of market conditions did not change.
|Source: Capital Economics|
Capital Economics who tends to be fairly conservative in their forecasts concluded that things in the housing market actually don't look too bleak and prices may be stabilizing:
We are not expecting to see a housing market that could be described as strong. But despite the downward revisions to sales, a modest recovery may be underway.Let's hope they are right.