When it comes to the Republican nomination, all the wonderful polls out there are printing different numbers, but there is no poll like the market. And the market is showing Newt Gingrich probability of nominations rising sharply approaching 40%.
At the same time Intrade has Mitt Romney contracts selling off.
If this continues we may have a Republican surprise shortly. This would throw a wrench into the General election odds because it's unclear if Gingrich could take on Obama.