A year ago Bill Gross went on TV to say he will be under-invested treasuries because they offer no upside. Now that US treasuries are up 9% (based on iBoxx Treasuries Total Return Index) and the 10-year note is up nearly 17%, Gross had a paradigm shift.
PIMCO's letter (attached) states that the process of deleveraging in the US has only just begun. That is indeed true (as can be seen in PIMCO's chart below), but it's hardly a new development and was just as much true a year ago.
|10yr TIPS yield (Bloomberg)|
WSJ: Mr. Gross's fund was a laggard last year. The fund handed investors a return of 4.2%, compared with 7.8% on the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, according to Morningstar.As much as PIMCO makes some great points in the letter, it's difficult to reconcile the current investment thesis with last year's anti-treasuries rhetoric.
Pimco Jan 2012 Letter