Thursday, June 21, 2012

Summer of 2011 redux?

The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues its relentless slide. The US PMI (52.9 vs. 53.3 expected), the Philadelphia Fed Diffusion Index (-16.6 vs 0 expected), Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production, etc. are all coming in below expectations. It would seem that economists would adjust their forecasts by now, but that hasn't happened.

Citi Economic Surprise Index

This is somewhat reminiscent of last summer when a mix of US budget issues and fears in Europe increased market volatility and put downward pressure on economic activity.
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