Thursday, July 12, 2012

Goldman's Olympic performance forecast

Goldman has developed a regression model to predict nations' performance in the Olympic Games as measured by the number of medals. The model uses some intuitive indicators such as population size, GDP per capita, and political stability as well as the more subtle variables including macro conditions, human capital, technology, etc. One of the variables is whether or not a nation is hosting the Olympics, which gives it a significant advantage. That bodes well for the UK this summer. Here are the results.

Gold medals only:

Source: GS

Total medals:
Source: GS
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