Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Markets are betting on US housing recovery

Both the equity and the credit markets are betting on the US housing recovery.

Equity: This chart compares total return for the PHLX (Philadelphia Stock Exchange) US Housing Sector Index (companies with focus on US residential housing) with the S&P500 index. The PHLX YTD outperformance is 19%. With an estimated PE of 30-35, a great deal of growth is priced in and the group now feels overbought.

 (source: Bloomberg)

Credit: This chart from JPMorgan shows the YTD total return for the sectors in the JPMorgan High Yield (bond) Index. The housing sector has outperformed the overall index by almost 8% YTD.

Source: JPMorgan
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