Monday, October 8, 2012

IMF: Eurozone unemployment to exceed that of Middle East and North Africa

The latest IMF report (here) projects next year's unemployment in the Eurozone to be the highest among all the major world regions - exceeding even the rising levels of unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa.

Source: IMF (click to enlarge)

These projections are driven by IMF's economic model which has the Eurozone recession probability at above 80%.
IMF: - The IMF staff’s Global Projection Model (GPM) uses an entirely different methodology to gauge risk but confirms that risks for recession in advanced economies (entailing a serious slowdown in emerging market and developing economies) are alarmingly high. For 2013, the GPM estimates suggest that recession probabilities are about 15 percent in the United States, above 25 percent in Japan, and above 80 percent in the euro area.

Source: IMF
Of course as discussed back in May (see post), the PMI numbers have been pointing to this for some time now. But the IMF is working with Q2-2012 numbers - so the report has a bit of lag in it.




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