Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Additional confirmation of flawed jobless claims reports

We now have further confirmation that the Department of Labor recent reports on jobless claims have been flawed (see post). The sudden drop in initial claims (below) should correspond to an outsize jump in new jobs created last month.

However, today's report from ADP shows that the September nonfarm private payroll growth was not materially different from that in August or July. And it is highly unlikely that we've had a sudden increase in new government jobs last month. It's time for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to do a recount of the unemployment claims - once they are back in the office of course.

Source: ADP

Update: Gallup is also not showing any significant improvements in US labor markets during September.
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