|Based on daily trend (source: Investing.com)|
That's precisely what many investors have been doing since October, as treasuries resumed the decline which began last spring.
Now consider the following chart. It shows the aggregate speculate investor positioning in dollar rate-sensitive futures. The measure is duration weighted, assigning a higher weight to the 10y note futures than to bill futures for example.
|Source: Credit Suisse|
This tells us that "speculative" investors are building up what amounts to a large (relative to recent history) short treasuries position. And why not - so far all signs have pointed to this being the right trade. Until some of these trigger-happy traders begin to cover.
With all the bearish news out and everyone - including retail investors - talking about rising rates, the contrarian view would put the near-term risk in treasuries to the upside.
From our sponsor: